- Ruling Coalition Suffers Major Defeat in Upper House Election – Prime Minister Ishiba Vows to Stay On
The House of Councillors (Upper House) election was held on the 20th, resulting in a major setback for the ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito.
The coalition lost a significant number of seats and failed to capture 50 seats to secure a majority, including those not up for re-election — the threshold Prime Minister Ishiba had set as a benchmark for victory.
Following their previous defeat in the House of Representatives, the ruling coalition has now suffered another crushing blow in the Upper House, reducing it to a minority ruling party in both chambers.
Despite the loss, Prime Minister Ishiba (also the president of the LDP) declared his intention to remain in office.
However, calls questioning the prime minister’s responsibility are growing, and it appears that the administration will face increasing difficulty in governing.
Voter turnout for electoral districts was estimated by the Yomiuri Shimbun to be around 58%, expected to surpass the 52.05% turnout of the previous election in 2022.
In an emergency nationwide public opinion poll conducted by Yomiuri Shimbun on July 21–22, respondents were asked who they think is most suitable to be the next prime minister if a government led by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) continues.
Sanae Takaichi, former Minister for Economic Security, ranked first with 26% support.
Agriculture Minister Koizumi followed with 22%,
While Prime Minister Ishiba received 8%.
By political affiliation:
Among LDP supporters:
Koizumi at 23%
Takaichi at 22%
Among opposition party supporters:
Takaichi: 36%
Koizumi: 16%
Ishiba: 5%
- Ishiba Might Capitalize On The U.S. Tariff Deal To Stay In Power
During his visit to the United States, Economic Revitalization Minister Akazawa held a roughly 70-minute meeting with President Trump at the White House on the 22nd, following talks with U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent.
Afterwards, he explained to reporters that “reciprocal tariffs will not be imposed on items that currently have tariff rates of 15% or more. For items with less than 15% tariffs, the cap will be set at 15%.”
No quantitative restrictions will be placed on Japanese passenger car exports.
Minister Akazawa emphasized, “We were able to achieve a reduction in tariffs on automobiles and auto parts. There’s no doubt that this is better than continuing to face a 25% tariff.”
The implementation timing of the agreement has not yet been decided.
However, the additional 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum products will remain in place.
Additionally, to encourage investment in the United States in the field of economic security, government-affiliated financial institutions will provide $550 billion in investments, loans, and loan guarantees.
Imports of U.S.-grown rice will also increase.
The duty-free import quota known as "Minimum Access (MA)" will see expanded allocation to the U.S.
According to Bloomberg News, Japan has agreed to increase its rice purchases by 75%, buy $8 billion worth of agricultural and other products, and purchase 100 Boeing aircraft.
Prime Minister Ishiba, commenting on his own future in light of the agreement, said:
“We are negotiating based on national interest. Any decisions about my future will depend on the results. I cannot make any definitive statements until the agreement is thoroughly examined.”
3. Kansai Electric Power Begins Efforts Toward New Reactor at Mihama Nuclear Plant
Kansai Electric Power Co. (KEPCO) has initiated efforts to build a new nuclear reactor at the Mihama Nuclear Power Plant in Mihama Town, Fukui Prefecture.
The move is driven by the global push for decarbonization and the anticipated surge in electricity demand due to the advancement of digital technologies.
However, significant challenges remain, such as progress in the nuclear fuel cycle, which is essential for the long-term use of nuclear power.
A major factor prompting KEPCO to restart site surveys is the expected sharp rise in electricity demand, largely due to the widespread adoption of generative AI and the construction of data centers required to process massive volumes of data.
According to estimates from Japan’s Organization for Cross-regional Coordination of Transmission Operators (OCCTO), domestic electricity demand could rise by about 40% by 2050, reaching up to 1.25 trillion kilowatt-hours compared to 2019 levels.
Compared to renewable energy sources like solar and wind, which are weather-dependent, nuclear power is highly valued as a stable source of electricity.
Currently, KEPCO’s Mihama Unit 3 has been in operation for 49 years as of this year.
Most of KEPCO’s reactors are aging, and updating measures have been a pressing issue.
Last year, KEPCO announced its intention to pursue new construction and replacement of nuclear reactors by 2050.
The company is developing next-generation reactors known as “Innovative Light Water Reactors,” which improve safety through design enhancements.
The Japanese government, in its 7th Strategic Energy Plan approved by the Cabinet in February this year, stated that it would make maximum use of decarbonized energy sources, including nuclear power.
It set a target for nuclear energy to account for around 20% of the country’s power supply by FY2040.
However, expanding nuclear energy use poses the challenge of managing increased volumes of spent nuclear fuel.
Progress toward realizing a “nuclear fuel cycle,” which is considered the cornerstone of Japan’s nuclear policy, remains slow.
The reprocessing facility under construction in Rokkasho Village, Aomori Prefecture, is now expected to be completed in FY2026, but this marks the 27th delay.
KEPCO has submitted plans to transport spent fuel from Fukui Prefecture to the facility, but if completion is delayed further, existing reactors may be forced to shut down due to lack of storage.
Following the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi disaster, all reactors in Japan were shut down.
Since then, new safety standards have been implemented, and reactors that passed the inspections have gradually resumed operations.
In October 2024, the Onagawa Unit 2 reactor of Tohoku Electric Power became the first in eastern Japan to restart.
Currently, 14 reactors are in operation, including those under periodic inspection.
Meanwhile, no new nuclear reactors have been built in Japan since the Tomari Unit 3 reactor of Hokkaido Electric Power began operation in 2009.
If KEPCO’s new reactor plan succeeds, it would be the first new construction under the current regulatory framework.
Looking ahead, several years will be required for geological surveys, as well as environmental impact assessments (EIAs) to examine the effects on local ecosystems.
Even if the decision to build is made based on the results, the regulatory review for KEPCO’s next-generation reactor model has no precedent, and the process could take an extended period.
The construction is also expected to cost around 1 trillion yen, and there are concerns that inflation could drive the cost even higher.
4. METI To Support Domestic Perovskite Solar Cell Production
According to Yomiuri, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) is launching support for the domestic production of next-generation solar cells known as perovskite solar cells.
Utilizing a government fund, the ministry aims to select companies for support by fiscal year 2025, with the goal of establishing a mass production system capable of generating 1 gigawatt annually—enough to supply electricity to approximately 300,000 households by 2030.
The new initiative will specifically target the “tandem-type” perovskite solar cells, which combine a layer of silicon with the perovskite layer in a panel format.
These cells offer 1.5 to 2 times higher power generation efficiency compared to conventional models and have the advantage of being compatible with existing panel mounting structures and wiring, making it easier to replace older panels.
METI will utilize the Green Innovation (GI) Fund, which supports decarbonization technologies, to assist with the development and demonstration of mass production technologies.
Companies receiving support will be required to achieve a power generation cost of 12 yen or less per kilowatt-hour—about 10% cheaper than conventional types—and ensure durability of about 20 years.
METI envisions companies like Kaneka, a chemical manufacturer leading in tandem-type development, and Choshu Industry, which holds about 20% of the domestic market share for residential solar panels, as key players in domestic production.
Currently, Japanese manufacturers hold about 70% of the market share for residential-use panels, making expansion in this area feasible.
Chinese manufacturers are already ahead in the solar cell field and several are moving into mass production of tandem-type cells.
In contrast, Japan has yet to see a company begin full-scale production, but Choshu Industry plans to set up a test production line at its headquarters factory within the year, aiming for early mass production.
In perovskite development:
Sekisui Chemical is leading with film-type cells that are thin and lightweight.
Panasonic is advancing with glass-type cells suitable for use as building materials.
The Japanese government aims to accelerate the adoption of solar power by supporting tandem-type cells, which are considered easier to replace traditional panels with.